Freshman Investor

Gold - so it begins

2011-08-25T23:06:00.002-04:00

Gold bubble bursting?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904787404576528951132297710.html?mod=WSJ_article_forsub

It's funny, when I turn on Fox News, the news channel that believes Obama is going to ruin the world, all I get are commercials for investing in gold. The news certainly drives the ads. I wonder if the advertisers drive the news, at least a bit. Does Fox News have a little pressure to say how terrible the economy is so that their advertisers can benefit?

Gold is in a bubble because it is traditionally used as a hedge or insurance against a bear market. It was intended to be a preservative of capital and usually trends opposite of the market, but with a lower Beta (volatility). However, advertisers have rebranded gold as an investment vehicle. In other words, it's no longer about wealth preservation, but about wealth creation, like traditional stocks.

AutoDesk ADSK

2011-08-18T17:43:00.000-04:00

Another stock that has been having a rough summer is Autodesk. In May, they were above $45. Today, they are around $27. Autodesk, the maker of AutoCAD, has huge market share. They are also investing a lot in mobile platforms for the ipad and iphone, plus they have created a cloud where users can enjoy working on their drawings from anywhere. As an engineer, I REALLY appreciate everyone of these upgrades. at a P/E of 26, I believe this is a bargain as compared to other software companies in the design world.

I'm in for 20 shares.

CERN

2011-08-11T12:46:00.000-04:00

This (in my opinion) short term bear market created some buying opportunities today. This morning, I purchased 9 CERN at $54.5. CERN is a company I have been meaning to get into. They are benefiting from the push for electronic medical records. Healthcare is an industry that relies heavily on records, and yet one of the last to have electronic records. They're also a pretty darn good software company. Anyway, today's bargin price was like finding them at a 20% off sale.

Honda FCX

2011-06-21T00:19:00.000-04:00

http://automobiles.honda.com/fcx-clarity/
Honda has upgraded their hydrogen powered car to use a lithium ion battery instead of a capacitor. I find this comical. Now it's even more of an electric car than ever before. Except, I still can't plug it into my outlet and charge, I have to let the expensive hydrogen system charge the battery using hydrogen that's not yet sold at any of my local gas stations. How is that more convenient charging than plugging it into my garage? Of course the battery isn't really the storage medium for energy. The hydrogen system is. Why would I want to pay for all that extra technology? Save the space and just give me a bigger battery and a plug instead.

Barnes and Noble

2011-06-02T14:14:00.000-04:00

Obviously e-readers are turning bookstores into scrap, just like how iTunes turned shopping mall music stores into wig shops. Eventually, the same will happen to video games I believe (watch out GameStop).

So what is Barnes & Noble going to do with all of their real estate? I'm sitting in one right now, and I've noticed their cafe's register is ringing much more than the bookstore. Why not gradually remove all the books and become a large cafe? The coffee's good, and the pizza moderate.

Sprint?

2011-05-03T23:55:00.003-04:00

So on March 21st, I sent Biren an e-mail congratulating myself on liquidating half of my Sprint (NYSE: S) position a few days before the AT&T - T-Mobile acquisition was announced. I made some great money, and the stock dropped quite a bit on the news.

However, I didn't use the opportunity to buy more and the stock has returned to its pre-acquisition level.

Which puts me in the same place I was before... Do I sell the rest of my position banking on Sprint to fall back down and get back in, or has the original investment thesis changed?

I have watched Sprint bounce around between $4.00 and $5.00 for a while, so I'd buy around $4.00 and sell around $5.00 and make a decent amount for a few months while my cash was tied up.

But now, I'm beginning to think my thesis needs to change. Sprint's turned out an impressive quarter beating everyone's expectations. They have done amazing things with their critical Churn and ARPU (average revenue per user) metrics. They're beginning to see subscriber growth, and they finally have a plan to mothball the iDEN network. In addition, they didn't get decimated by Verizon's iPhone, and they're about to release two more EVO 4G devices. They have a venerable (and valuable) spectrum position, and if the AT&T - T-mobile acquisition goes through will be a likely Verizon takeover target (which even if it doesn't materialize -- I think it won't -- will have a wonderful effect on the stock)...

So, I'm a holder. I'll look to accumulate more shares when it makes sense and will probably sell when it gets to six, knowing that it will drop and return to that level just like it bobbed between $4.00 and $5.00 for quite some time.

Scottrade Broker Clearing Number

2011-04-12T01:26:00.000-04:00

The most popular item on my blog is the Scottrade broker clearing number. Fine, I'll put it up here, front and center so you can see it:

Scottrade Broker Clearing Number 0705

Great, now you've got what you came for. But can I entice you to check out the rest of this site? It's much more than a Scottrade clearing number reference, especially for you since you clearly are an investor.

Thanks,
Biren

Fwd: ETF

2011-04-05T00:07:00.003-04:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Apr 5, 2011 at 12:00 AM
Subject: Re: ETF
To: Chan Patel <chan.d.patel@gmail.com>, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>

I'll find out in morning.

Japan will recover, but how long will it take is the answer. Dozens
of companies in Japan have not produced a single item and will not
produce for months. This zero profit.

Instead, coal, oil, and natural gas are soaring in prices because of
Japan's need for energy.

Instead of investing in Japan, invest in energy.
No new nuclear power plants will be built because people are scared of nuclear.

Therefore, the only energy alternative is fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas.

Buy an Energy ETF fund.

-Subash

On 4/4/11, Chan Patel <chan.d.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

> It is in the Forbes magazine.Apri 11 it says buy ETF (EWJ) holding 300
> japanese stock should payoff over a time. Japan will recover in two years
> time.
> I wanted to buy large companys' mutual funds but market is too high. Don't
> go to work tomorrow, or go lake call the insurance guy. I want to check with
> mine. What they pay or do they fix repair?
>
> DAD

>
> On Mon, Apr 4, 2011 at 2:29 PM, Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> If you want to buy japan, but what japan needs:
>>
>> Buy oil/natural gas companies - exxon, chevron, devon, chesapeake.
>>
>> Wait for price to dip with oil/gas.
>>
>> You can buy banks now: chase or wells fargo.
>>
>> -Subash
>>
>>
>>
>> On 4/4/11, Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > I wouldn't buy etf japan- you do not need the risk.
>> >
>> >
>> > On 4/4/11, Chan Patel <chan.d.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >> what you think. Buy ETF fund Japan. They will recoverf. it is down
>> >> now.?
>> >>
>> >> DAD
>> >>
>> >
>> > --
>> > Sent from my mobile device
>> >
>>
>> --
>> Sent from my mobile device
>>
>

Sent from my mobile device

Fwd: ETF

2011-04-05T00:07:00.001-04:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Apr 4, 2011 at 2:29 PM
Subject: Re: ETF
To: Chan Patel <chan.d.patel@gmail.com>, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>

If you want to buy japan, but what japan needs:

Buy oil/natural gas companies - exxon, chevron, devon, chesapeake.

Wait for price to dip with oil/gas.

You can buy banks now: chase or wells fargo.

-Subash

On 4/4/11, Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
> I wouldn't buy etf japan- you do not need the risk.
>
>
> On 4/4/11, Chan Patel <chan.d.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>> what you think. Buy ETF fund Japan. They will recoverf. it is down now.?
>>
>> DAD
>>
>
> --
> Sent from my mobile device
>

--
Sent from my mobile device

Tsla at $135?!

2011-03-31T09:13:00.003-04:00

http://blog.covestor.com/2011/03/tesla-stock-could-go-to-135share-morgan-stanley-analyst-nasdaq-tsla

systematic risk

2011-03-18T10:37:00.000-04:00

I realized that I am not diversified. I'm in tech stocks and alternative energy. Perhaps I need to throw in some pharmaceuticals or retail?

ipad and macbook air

2011-02-23T07:00:00.001-05:00

in airport, guy next to me is holding mac book air and ipad in hand,
how is apple able to convince people that they need to buy both? is it
crack?

AAPLs to AAPLs

2011-02-17T09:22:00.000-05:00

I've previously discussed the fact that apple's P/E has gone down substantially over the last couple of years, yet the company is in a much better position than it was even just two years ago. I made the suggestion that since the P/E ratio is low, the stock is very cheap and it's ridiculous to think that its trading at a lower P/E than two years ago. Perhaps this is the reason:

http://remington-work.blogspot.com/2009/09/accounting-shift-would-lift-tech.html

Dr. Harvey passed out this article in class and it basically says that a 4th qtr 2009 accounting rule change required cell phone companies to take profits at the time of sale. Previously, they were required to spread it out over 2 years (beacause the phone included software, and software takes time to "deliver" because of software updates, maintenence, etc).

Since Apple no longer spreads out the profits from their iPhone over two years, their earnings today appears inflated as compared to previous years (assuming iPhone sales are increasing). Other, smarter investors picked up on this and that's why the price of the stock didn't skyrocket when the new rule took affect and earnings jumped. So comparing the P/E of Apple today and the P/E of Apple 2 years ago isn't Apples to Apples.

Re: Federal Government wants 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015

2011-01-31T00:15:00.001-05:00

EVs could turn out similar to the TV market over the last 10 years. There was a long while there when no one had an HD TV or big screen TV and the cost to buy one was super expensive. Now, not only does everyone have it, the one they have is quickly becoming out of date. TVs used to take forever to go Obsolete, instead, they just broke.

I think EVs could do the same. it will be a matter of time before the majority of cars are EVs, then we'll all regret not waiting to get the latest, since the technology will improve so fast. If you are a mechanic, you'd better learn how to work with EVs pretty quickly...they're coming.

On Fri, Jan 28, 2011 at 1:11 PM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

http://www.energy.gov/news/10034.htm

One bit caught my attention especially:

"Making electric vehicles more affordable and accessible for American
consumers: A transformation of the existing $7,500 tax credit into a
rebate will give consumers the ability to receive this benefit at the
point of sale, similar to 'Cash for Clunkers'. The current individual
credit will be reformed into a tax credit claimable by dealers or
financers with clear transparency requirements to ensure the benefit
of the credit is passed on to consumers."

This is a clever move. If tax reform passes, it's possible this
provision may still be handled separately; and regardless, it allows
people to consider the purchase price of an electric vehicle at the
net cost, instead of having to scrounge up the extra $7500 up-front
that they'll later get refunded through the tax credit.

This article also has some really good information:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/white-house-outlines-ambitious-plan-get-1m-el.
One highlight:

"IBM recently conducted a pair of studies of consumer attitudes and
auto industry executives toward electric cars.

"On the positive side, the IBM study noted there is a potentially
large market for electric vehicles:

"19% of drivers surveyed said that they were either 'very likely' or
'likely' to consider purchasing an electric-only vehicle when shopping
for a new car. This is notable, given that 42% of drivers know only 'a
little' about EVs or have even 'only heard of them.'

"30% of drivers surveyed said that they would consider switching to an
electric car that got 100 miles or less per charge. Current electric
vehicles get about 50 to 100 miles per charge."

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

some kind of a fruit company

2011-01-23T20:54:00.004-05:00

Remember when Forest Gump invested in "some kind of a fruit company?"

In 2004, I owned 15 shares of apple, it was about $30 a share back then. In 2005 it went up to about $90 and then split 2:1 for $45. I tripled my money and was happy and excited, so I sold it all. At the end of 2008, the market crashed and apple was trading at $90 a share (double from when I sold it in 2005 and about 1/2 of its all-time high at the end of 2007). I thought it was a huge discount since it was 1/2 of its all-time high, and I had been kicking myself for not sticking with it since 2004. This was my opportunity to make it right so I bought 10 shares. It quickly doubled to $180 at the end of 2009 and again, I got excited and sold all 10 shares.

Of course, I look at it today, and I'm kicking myself yet again for not sticking with it. These past few years, I have been in search of the "next apple," rather, the next stock to have this amazing run. Finally, I have woken up and realized that the "next apple" is actually Apple. Their P/E is ridiculously low, so relative to earnings, this may be the cheapest time to buy in a very long time and for a long time to come (discount perhaps due to Steve Jobs' health concerns). I bought 3 shares at the price of $335. Apple is the next Apple. I fully expect the next 5 years to run just like the past 5 years.

For those calculating, those 15 shares I purchased for $30 would be 30 shares for $335 (remember the split). So my $450 investment would be worth over $10,000 today. Instead of 30 shares, I can barely afford to buy 3. Next time, if I get a high performing stock, to lock in gains, I will sell maybe 1/2 of what I own each time.

Re: GE

2011-01-12T21:17:00.000-05:00

if gas prices rise, TSLA should go up. therefore you will hear me
celebrate higher gas prices, even though it will cost me.

On Jan 12, 2011, at 4:11 PM, Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

> But with higher energy, tesla will benfit with putting willing to gamble
>
> On 1/12/11, Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>> I rather ownb ge than tesla
>>
>>
>> On 1/12/11, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> i think you're right, i will also put in an order to sell GE.
>>> TSLA is high risk, but i'm going for it
>>>
>>
>> --
>> Sent from my mobile device
>>
>
> --
> Sent from my mobile device

revisiting Tesla - Toyota Rav4 EV

2011-01-11T13:52:00.001-05:00

I've changed my mind on TSLA. I was afraid of the IPO, because most fall once all of the Venture Capitalist investors exit, but TSLA's price is still hanging in there. Maybe this is because the Venture Capitalists haven't made their exit yet, I'm not sure, but I do know that this company has been hyped for sometime. The technology is certainly attractive, even is the Tesla cars never become mainstream, see this Toyota deal:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70A4QY20110111
The biggest problem I have with this deal is that no one wants to buy a Rav 4 anymore! Couldn't they have spent the money on something cooler? something Tesla Roadster cool? ...maybe a Tesla powered Scion TC. (I apologize if you own a Rav4, but you know you in your heart of hearts that you "settled" for it after dreaming about other models.)

The design is a generation ahead of anything else out there. With the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt, other major manufacturers are going to have to jump in. Now that gas has hit over $3 a gallon again, electric cars will be revisited by consumers. If it does tank as so many new stocks do in their first year, then I will double-down and buy some more.

Bought 35 TSLA@ $27.52

Is Netflix too expensive?

2011-01-11T13:43:00.000-05:00

Is Netflix overpriced? They have continued to find growth and are putting all traditional movie stores out of business. Are they maxed out or can they continue to find new markets? Now they have defeated Blockbuster, who is their competition? Redbox/Coinstar (CSTR)? Apple TV? On Demand from your cable or satellite box? I love this company, but the P/E is 70. Does it deserve to be so high? I know I go back to Apple a lot in this blog, but that's the model for company growth in this generation. Right now, their P/E is only 22! With the exception of Apple TV, its a different industry and not really fair to compare P/Es, but 70 is just way too high.

Ford, Waste Mgt

2010-11-26T18:19:00.000-05:00

Spent my holiday watching CNBC and CNN and saw some intresting pieces
on Ford (with expansion in India) and Waste Management. Thoughts?

Google to increase salaries by 10%

2010-11-11T15:37:00.001-05:00

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/80714/20101111/google-s-10-salary-increase-1000-cash-bonus-part-of-company-s-competitive-compensation-plan.htm

Hey Peter, maybe this is part of your advertising bubble inflating. It seems very similar to the telecom industry just before the dot com crash, where they raised salaries across the board just to keep their current people from jumping ship. I believe this happened with legacy airlines too.

DVN

2010-11-10T09:54:00.000-05:00

DVN up pretty big lately, check this out:

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4644108

--Biren

Wrong about Google?

2010-10-16T14:04:00.000-04:00

I own just one share of Google and I haven't been too optimistic about it. After all, they have a larger P/E ratio than Apple, but do they really deserve to be "more expensive" than apple? My perception was that they aren't growing their business as much, and advertising revenue really isn't as sustainable. However, I overlooked the fact that Google is constantly trying to use their cash to invest in other markets. Take a look at this example of how Google is investing in clean energy:
http://gigaom.com/cleantech/google-backs-offshore-wind-farm-backbone/

Will these investments payoff? Or should they stick to the business they know (which some argue is already maxed out and has no where to go). They've become so much more than a search engine who makes money off of ads. While that is still their core business, they have been successful in mobile phones, office productivity software, and there are rumors about operating systems and other applications. That's at least in the same ballpark. Is clean energy too far of a stretch? or is it right in their strike zone, considering all of the data mining that is involved with the Smart Grid and new energy technologies.

Meanwhile, Apple has a reputation for creating new markets to expand their business. They are no longer a computer company. They created music downloads and have dominated almost every new market venture from MP3 players, app stores, netbooks (iPad).

Does google deserve to trade at a higher P/E than Apple? Who has the potential for longer, sustained growth? Share your comments and vote on the poll question.

SQM

2010-09-13T20:49:00.000-04:00

So I bought SQM not too long ago at $32, and already it has jumped up to $47. I'm going to make sure I lock in those gains and raise my stop limit order with a stop price of $44 and a limit price of $43.80. That way I'm sure to lock in over $11 in movement.

Unfortunately, the other stock I bought on that same day is DVN, and it hasn't moved much at all, up just 1%.

buying and selling domain names

2010-09-04T21:31:00.000-04:00

Anyone out there ever thought about buying and selling domain names like investing in real estate? Looking like if you're creative about the domain names you pick, you could make some good money a la http://www.sedo.com/. Is it easy to lose money on this? Doesn't seem like it. Buying 100 unique names could cost $1000 a year, but then if you sell just one or two of the 100 to a business that really wants it, you might be on top. Feels a little less ethical than buying and holding real estate though, doesn't it? It's more like ticket scapling. domain names you pick, you could make some good money a la sedo.com. Is it easy to lose money on this? Doesn't seem like it. Buying 100 unique names could cost $1000 a year, but then if you sell just one or two of the 100 to a business that really wants it, you might be on top. Feels a little less ethical than buying and holding real estate though, doesn't it? It's more like ticket scapling. And you don't have to sell the domain to make money, you could just sell ad space on it. For example, take one of my favorite college players who just turned pro, Demaryius "Bay Bay" Thomas. http://www.demaryiusthomas.com/ is taken, but it's not an "official" site for Demaryius Thomas. But if you visit it, there are a lot of ads pertaining to football. Or check out http://www.demaryiusthomas88.com/ and you can buy autographed memorabila. The owner of http://www.baybaythomas.com/ isn't really relying on football ad space, but is probably a "domain trader" since you get links to domain brokers when you get there.

Now that you're in Sprint, what's the next steps?

2010-09-01T23:27:00.005-04:00

Hopefully you followed in Biren's footsteps and got into sprint sometime over the last couple of days. If you did, you're already up a nice amount while I'm sitting at even, but that's what I get for jumping the gun... something I predicted would happen anyway...

But now that you're in, what should you do?

I'm planning on writing some covered call options for the October expiration at $5.00. Why? I'm a self admitted short term investor who will sell the moment the stock hits $5.00 anyway. I'm sure Biren will get out at $5.25, and post a comment (and maybe you should too if you're the patient type), but me, I'm not.

Since I would sell it at $5.00, I might as well sell call options at $5.00 and earn a few dollars by writing them. Since these options likely expire before the quarter results are reported to the street, there isn't much of a catalyst to drive a significant increase in sprint's share price. As a result, I see this as best case the realization of my original thesis (in which case I made $0.90 a share in a few months) and at worst some additional income off some shares that don't have a dividend.

Are you joining me?

Time to buy Sprint?

2010-08-20T23:28:00.003-04:00

I think so. I'm in at $4.15. You should be too. Why?

1.) I think Sprint has a natural support level somewhere around $4.00 (it is a shame I'm too impatient to let it drop to $4.00)... maybe you'll be lucky enough to get some when it goes that low.

2.) During their last conference call, Bob Brust (CFO) and Dan Hesse (CEO) provided guidance that Sprint would achieve subscriber growth during the next quarter and throughout the remainder of the Fiscal year. Followers of the stock know, that Dan and Bob have been very reluctant to provide quarter-to-quarter guidance on subscriber growth (or being honest, lack thereof), so the fact that they provided guidance was surprising. Even more surprising, was the way they provided it. Bob hinted at it in his prepared remarks. When an on-the-ball analyst asked if he was providing positive guidance in that department, Dan said that while he may not have meant to, he did.

A lot of investors have looked like fools because they invested based on an upbeat conference call. This conference call was as upbeat as any. What surprised me about Dan and Bob's remarks is that when they were asked if they were guiding higher, they were caught off guard. Listen for yourself. It's as if their secret (that they've been hiding to surprise the street) has been exposed.

Clearly the street isn't reading into the slip as much as I am. One of us is foolish. Given the fundamentals, the fact that they're the only network that can grow given their head start in 4G, and their massive improvements in any customer satisfaction rating, I don't think it is me.

Happy Trading.

SQM, DVM, energy

2010-08-17T22:53:00.000-04:00

On 6/29 I purchased SQM, which has done well, especially today, where they are up 7%. Lithium demand is going to grow. It is already replacing alkaline batteries, but that's small potatoes. You will see them used for energy storage in the smart grid, in electric cars, in personal electronic devices (MP3 players, cell phones, GPS units, etc.). They are the new standard in energy storage and Chile and SQM have a lot to profit from this rising demand.

Mr. Li

2010-08-02T21:54:00.001-04:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110200/from-tiananmen-square-to-possible-buffett-successor?mod=career-leadership

FW: Google to Buy 114 MW of Wind Power Annually From NextEra Energy

2010-07-21T11:47:00.001-04:00

Google to Buy 114 MW of Wind Power Annually From NextEra Energy
Google Energy has agreed to buy 114 MW of wind generation each year for 20 years from a NextEra Resources facility in Iowa, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The deal puts Google in the wholesale energy market. The company plans to use some of the energy to power some of its data centers, the Associated Press reported, and it plans to sell the rest of the electricity back to the grid via the regional spot market, according to Dow Jones. Google Energy contracted to buy the power at a fixed rate beginning July 30.
Information Week quoted Urs Hoelzle, senior VP of operations at Google, as saying: "By contracting to purchase so much energy for so long, we're giving the developer of the wind farm financial

[The entire original message is not included]

Re: Tesla Motors

2010-07-07T23:19:00.001-04:00

yep, i did notice.

i actually had some fun with it, bought it first day at $21 and sold it next day at $25. its still a risky thing. may be several years before they are profitable, but they are really good at spending tons of cash fast.

On Wed, Jul 7, 2010 at 7:59 PM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

In case you hadn't noticed, the price has dipped to $15.80. I think there's still a long way for it to fall, though. I'm aiming for $8.

-Peter

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 4:09 PM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

It's definitely going to dip. It opened at $18.61, but hasn't dipped before the IPO price of $17. It could take a couple weeks to a month, but I can't believe they will stay above their IPO price if A123 is still at $9. I'm researching put options right now.

-Peter

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 2:41 PM, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

TSLA up 23% even though dow is down huge.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 9:44 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

Hmm, check that - it looks like some people *are* doing towable generators:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/technical/1367-towable-generators.html

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 9:42 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

I agree - I think the fueling problem is overrated. It's a little bit like the iPad - everyone agrees that there's one critical feature missing, but nobody quite agrees what that is. There's already a company that has developed a way to recharge e-car batteries in less than 10 minutes, which qualifies them for a California "fuel cell" energy credit (even though it's not a fuel cell vehicle).

Here's the biggest problem with the electric car. The energy density of batteries is about 10% that of Gasoline, and it costs (and weighs) *a lot* more to have an energy reservoir consisting of batteries than to have an energy reservoir consisting of an empty gas tank. On the other hand, some of this is compensated for by the fact that electricity is cheaper, savings from not running the motor when you don't need it, and the much better performance of electric motors over internal combustion engines. Since I'm an optimist, and since I really like electric cars, let's go ahead and assume that these perfectly cancel out the drawbacks. The end result is, though, that the car is still going to cost a lot more up-front, until battery technology gets better.

The second problem is that the payback period is based on how much you actually use the car. Since the biggest justification for using electric cars is for short-haul travel, this means that the people who would theoretically be best served by the electric car are also the ones who are going to feel the greatest cost burden for buying it.

The only way I can think of to address this is through tax credits. If it's in municipalities best interest to have less smog, then they can pass some of this interest on to their constituents in the form of a credit. If the federal government offered a loan-style credit like the old first-time homebuyer credit, where you are actually just getting a 0% loan that you pay back over 10 years, it would offset some of that initial cost burden. There's another downside here, though - most of the cost of roads is currently paid for by gas taxes. At some point, municipalities are going to start feeling a pinch if electric cars are not only not using gas but also receiving a tax credit. That will offset some of the cost even more.

There are some companies that manufacture electric cars that are designed for sub-highway speeds. This lets them get away with fewer batteries and less stringent safety requirements. This would be a good idea if we hadn't already built so many highways - as it is, it's going to be hard for someone in Atlanta to buy one of these cars if they can't use the highway to go to work anymore.

One idea I've been considering for quite a while is whether it would be feasible to build a short distance (100 mile or less) electric car which supported a tow-behind diesel electric generator. This would allow you to go much greater distances (potentially even greater than with an ordinary car, since you could put a 20 gallon gas tank in the trailer without too much trouble), and might allow you to skip some of the safety requirements that come from having the engine and gas tank in the car. (It would also be nice and quiet) Plus, you could leave it at home when you don't need it, or just rent one for a trip. Nobody seems to be taking this route, though.

I just don't know. I really love electric cars, and I think they'll serve us well if we can actually get them into the marketplace. (Consider that if all the modern safety requirements had been imposed on early automobiles, they wouldn't have ever taken off as an industry - the cost would just have been too high. On the other hand, though, you've got the airline industry, which has never been profitable.) I guess I just feel like the electric car is the ideal engineering solution, and if we can find a way to get there, we'll be better off for it, but I can't come up with a way to actually get it into the marketplace without action on the part of the government.

-Peter

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 8:46 AM, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

good stuff,

a lot of people are still pessimistic about the electric car. at the SEE, there was a physicist/forecaster who feels that there will gradually be more and more electrical components to the car, just as they have been progressing in this manner over the last several years, but not a gasoline replacement, due to fueling time.

i think the fueling problem can be worked around. if you're fueling every night at home, then you don't need to fuel as much on the road except for extended road trips, and for those, maybe you'll have an exchangeable "travel battery" that you can carry with you and trade out like propane tanks.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

The IPO was priced at $17/share today, well ahead of the $14 to $16 people had expected. (Biren: I didn't end up participating, since Charles Schwab wasn't participating, and I didn't feel it was worth my time to track down a different broker).

It will be interesting to see what the stock does today. I think it's probably going to climb a bit from all the people who wanted in on the IPO but couldn't get in, but then I expect it to settle down in the $6-8 range. We'll see.

-Peter

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

DVN and SQM, the new focus on energy

2010-06-29T22:24:00.002-04:00

on 6/29 I purchased 5 shares of DVN @ 61.12 and 10 of SQM @ 32.96. Now that we've mastered information technology, it looks like the next focus is on energy. Devon is a natural gas and oil producer. Natural gas has a positive story to tell, especially with all of the recent negative news surrounding coal and oil. BP is taking advantage and purchasing a lot of Devon's natural gas assets. They have a P/E of about 12, which is at or below most of their major competitors (see APA, APC, and EOG). They had a rough 2009, much worse than their competitors as far as profit margins, but should be able to recover and rebound the highest if Natural Gas demand grows. http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100816006190&newsLang=en

SQM is a producer of many chemicals, but I purchased them for their production of lithium. Lithium batteries are not just replacing alkaline as the new standard, but are being used in more and more applications as the demand for portable power and energy storage (especially due to the electric car) grows.
http://blogs.forbes.com/investor/2010/07/29/chile-gets-a-charge-from-lithium/

Re: Tesla Motors

2010-06-29T14:41:00.001-04:00

TSLA up 23% even though dow is down huge.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 9:44 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

Hmm, check that - it looks like some people *are* doing towable generators:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/technical/1367-towable-generators.html

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 9:42 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

I agree - I think the fueling problem is overrated. It's a little bit like the iPad - everyone agrees that there's one critical feature missing, but nobody quite agrees what that is. There's already a company that has developed a way to recharge e-car batteries in less than 10 minutes, which qualifies them for a California "fuel cell" energy credit (even though it's not a fuel cell vehicle).

Here's the biggest problem with the electric car. The energy density of batteries is about 10% that of Gasoline, and it costs (and weighs) *a lot* more to have an energy reservoir consisting of batteries than to have an energy reservoir consisting of an empty gas tank. On the other hand, some of this is compensated for by the fact that electricity is cheaper, savings from not running the motor when you don't need it, and the much better performance of electric motors over internal combustion engines. Since I'm an optimist, and since I really like electric cars, let's go ahead and assume that these perfectly cancel out the drawbacks. The end result is, though, that the car is still going to cost a lot more up-front, until battery technology gets better.

The second problem is that the payback period is based on how much you actually use the car. Since the biggest justification for using electric cars is for short-haul travel, this means that the people who would theoretically be best served by the electric car are also the ones who are going to feel the greatest cost burden for buying it.

The only way I can think of to address this is through tax credits. If it's in municipalities best interest to have less smog, then they can pass some of this interest on to their constituents in the form of a credit. If the federal government offered a loan-style credit like the old first-time homebuyer credit, where you are actually just getting a 0% loan that you pay back over 10 years, it would offset some of that initial cost burden. There's another downside here, though - most of the cost of roads is currently paid for by gas taxes. At some point, municipalities are going to start feeling a pinch if electric cars are not only not using gas but also receiving a tax credit. That will offset some of the cost even more.

There are some companies that manufacture electric cars that are designed for sub-highway speeds. This lets them get away with fewer batteries and less stringent safety requirements. This would be a good idea if we hadn't already built so many highways - as it is, it's going to be hard for someone in Atlanta to buy one of these cars if they can't use the highway to go to work anymore.

One idea I've been considering for quite a while is whether it would be feasible to build a short distance (100 mile or less) electric car which supported a tow-behind diesel electric generator. This would allow you to go much greater distances (potentially even greater than with an ordinary car, since you could put a 20 gallon gas tank in the trailer without too much trouble), and might allow you to skip some of the safety requirements that come from having the engine and gas tank in the car. (It would also be nice and quiet) Plus, you could leave it at home when you don't need it, or just rent one for a trip. Nobody seems to be taking this route, though.

I just don't know. I really love electric cars, and I think they'll serve us well if we can actually get them into the marketplace. (Consider that if all the modern safety requirements had been imposed on early automobiles, they wouldn't have ever taken off as an industry - the cost would just have been too high. On the other hand, though, you've got the airline industry, which has never been profitable.) I guess I just feel like the electric car is the ideal engineering solution, and if we can find a way to get there, we'll be better off for it, but I can't come up with a way to actually get it into the marketplace without action on the part of the government.

-Peter

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 8:46 AM, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

good stuff,

a lot of people are still pessimistic about the electric car. at the SEE, there was a physicist/forecaster who feels that there will gradually be more and more electrical components to the car, just as they have been progressing in this manner over the last several years, but not a gasoline replacement, due to fueling time.

i think the fueling problem can be worked around. if you're fueling every night at home, then you don't need to fuel as much on the road except for extended road trips, and for those, maybe you'll have an exchangeable "travel battery" that you can carry with you and trade out like propane tanks.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

The IPO was priced at $17/share today, well ahead of the $14 to $16 people had expected. (Biren: I didn't end up participating, since Charles Schwab wasn't participating, and I didn't feel it was worth my time to track down a different broker).

It will be interesting to see what the stock does today. I think it's probably going to climb a bit from all the people who wanted in on the IPO but couldn't get in, but then I expect it to settle down in the $6-8 range. We'll see.

-Peter

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

Re: Tesla Motors

2010-06-29T09:44:00.001-04:00

Hmm, check that - it looks like some people *are* doing towable generators:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/technical/1367-towable-generators.html

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 9:42 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

I agree - I think the fueling problem is overrated. It's a little bit like the iPad - everyone agrees that there's one critical feature missing, but nobody quite agrees what that is. There's already a company that has developed a way to recharge e-car batteries in less than 10 minutes, which qualifies them for a California "fuel cell" energy credit (even though it's not a fuel cell vehicle).

Here's the biggest problem with the electric car. The energy density of batteries is about 10% that of Gasoline, and it costs (and weighs) *a lot* more to have an energy reservoir consisting of batteries than to have an energy reservoir consisting of an empty gas tank. On the other hand, some of this is compensated for by the fact that electricity is cheaper, savings from not running the motor when you don't need it, and the much better performance of electric motors over internal combustion engines. Since I'm an optimist, and since I really like electric cars, let's go ahead and assume that these perfectly cancel out the drawbacks. The end result is, though, that the car is still going to cost a lot more up-front, until battery technology gets better.

The second problem is that the payback period is based on how much you actually use the car. Since the biggest justification for using electric cars is for short-haul travel, this means that the people who would theoretically be best served by the electric car are also the ones who are going to feel the greatest cost burden for buying it.

The only way I can think of to address this is through tax credits. If it's in municipalities best interest to have less smog, then they can pass some of this interest on to their constituents in the form of a credit. If the federal government offered a loan-style credit like the old first-time homebuyer credit, where you are actually just getting a 0% loan that you pay back over 10 years, it would offset some of that initial cost burden. There's another downside here, though - most of the cost of roads is currently paid for by gas taxes. At some point, municipalities are going to start feeling a pinch if electric cars are not only not using gas but also receiving a tax credit. That will offset some of the cost even more.

There are some companies that manufacture electric cars that are designed for sub-highway speeds. This lets them get away with fewer batteries and less stringent safety requirements. This would be a good idea if we hadn't already built so many highways - as it is, it's going to be hard for someone in Atlanta to buy one of these cars if they can't use the highway to go to work anymore.

One idea I've been considering for quite a while is whether it would be feasible to build a short distance (100 mile or less) electric car which supported a tow-behind diesel electric generator. This would allow you to go much greater distances (potentially even greater than with an ordinary car, since you could put a 20 gallon gas tank in the trailer without too much trouble), and might allow you to skip some of the safety requirements that come from having the engine and gas tank in the car. (It would also be nice and quiet) Plus, you could leave it at home when you don't need it, or just rent one for a trip. Nobody seems to be taking this route, though.

I just don't know. I really love electric cars, and I think they'll serve us well if we can actually get them into the marketplace. (Consider that if all the modern safety requirements had been imposed on early automobiles, they wouldn't have ever taken off as an industry - the cost would just have been too high. On the other hand, though, you've got the airline industry, which has never been profitable.) I guess I just feel like the electric car is the ideal engineering solution, and if we can find a way to get there, we'll be better off for it, but I can't come up with a way to actually get it into the marketplace without action on the part of the government.

-Peter

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 8:46 AM, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

good stuff,

a lot of people are still pessimistic about the electric car. at the SEE, there was a physicist/forecaster who feels that there will gradually be more and more electrical components to the car, just as they have been progressing in this manner over the last several years, but not a gasoline replacement, due to fueling time.

i think the fueling problem can be worked around. if you're fueling every night at home, then you don't need to fuel as much on the road except for extended road trips, and for those, maybe you'll have an exchangeable "travel battery" that you can carry with you and trade out like propane tanks.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

The IPO was priced at $17/share today, well ahead of the $14 to $16 people had expected. (Biren: I didn't end up participating, since Charles Schwab wasn't participating, and I didn't feel it was worth my time to track down a different broker).

It will be interesting to see what the stock does today. I think it's probably going to climb a bit from all the people who wanted in on the IPO but couldn't get in, but then I expect it to settle down in the $6-8 range. We'll see.

-Peter

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

Re: Tesla Motors

2010-06-29T09:42:00.001-04:00

I agree - I think the fueling problem is overrated. It's a little bit like the iPad - everyone agrees that there's one critical feature missing, but nobody quite agrees what that is. There's already a company that has developed a way to recharge e-car batteries in less than 10 minutes, which qualifies them for a California "fuel cell" energy credit (even though it's not a fuel cell vehicle).

Here's the biggest problem with the electric car. The energy density of batteries is about 10% that of Gasoline, and it costs (and weighs) *a lot* more to have an energy reservoir consisting of batteries than to have an energy reservoir consisting of an empty gas tank. On the other hand, some of this is compensated for by the fact that electricity is cheaper, savings from not running the motor when you don't need it, and the much better performance of electric motors over internal combustion engines. Since I'm an optimist, and since I really like electric cars, let's go ahead and assume that these perfectly cancel out the drawbacks. The end result is, though, that the car is still going to cost a lot more up-front, until battery technology gets better.

The second problem is that the payback period is based on how much you actually use the car. Since the biggest justification for using electric cars is for short-haul travel, this means that the people who would theoretically be best served by the electric car are also the ones who are going to feel the greatest cost burden for buying it.

The only way I can think of to address this is through tax credits. If it's in municipalities best interest to have less smog, then they can pass some of this interest on to their constituents in the form of a credit. If the federal government offered a loan-style credit like the old first-time homebuyer credit, where you are actually just getting a 0% loan that you pay back over 10 years, it would offset some of that initial cost burden. There's another downside here, though - most of the cost of roads is currently paid for by gas taxes. At some point, municipalities are going to start feeling a pinch if electric cars are not only not using gas but also receiving a tax credit. That will offset some of the cost even more.

There are some companies that manufacture electric cars that are designed for sub-highway speeds. This lets them get away with fewer batteries and less stringent safety requirements. This would be a good idea if we hadn't already built so many highways - as it is, it's going to be hard for someone in Atlanta to buy one of these cars if they can't use the highway to go to work anymore.

One idea I've been considering for quite a while is whether it would be feasible to build a short distance (100 mile or less) electric car which supported a tow-behind diesel electric generator. This would allow you to go much greater distances (potentially even greater than with an ordinary car, since you could put a 20 gallon gas tank in the trailer without too much trouble), and might allow you to skip some of the safety requirements that come from having the engine and gas tank in the car. (It would also be nice and quiet) Plus, you could leave it at home when you don't need it, or just rent one for a trip. Nobody seems to be taking this route, though.

I just don't know. I really love electric cars, and I think they'll serve us well if we can actually get them into the marketplace. (Consider that if all the modern safety requirements had been imposed on early automobiles, they wouldn't have ever taken off as an industry - the cost would just have been too high. On the other hand, though, you've got the airline industry, which has never been profitable.) I guess I just feel like the electric car is the ideal engineering solution, and if we can find a way to get there, we'll be better off for it, but I can't come up with a way to actually get it into the marketplace without action on the part of the government.

-Peter

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 8:46 AM, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:

good stuff,

a lot of people are still pessimistic about the electric car. at the SEE, there was a physicist/forecaster who feels that there will gradually be more and more electrical components to the car, just as they have been progressing in this manner over the last several years, but not a gasoline replacement, due to fueling time.

i think the fueling problem can be worked around. if you're fueling every night at home, then you don't need to fuel as much on the road except for extended road trips, and for those, maybe you'll have an exchangeable "travel battery" that you can carry with you and trade out like propane tanks.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

The IPO was priced at $17/share today, well ahead of the $14 to $16 people had expected. (Biren: I didn't end up participating, since Charles Schwab wasn't participating, and I didn't feel it was worth my time to track down a different broker).

It will be interesting to see what the stock does today. I think it's probably going to climb a bit from all the people who wanted in on the IPO but couldn't get in, but then I expect it to settle down in the $6-8 range. We'll see.

-Peter

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

Re: Tesla Motors

2010-06-29T08:46:00.001-04:00

good stuff,

a lot of people are still pessimistic about the electric car. at the SEE, there was a physicist/forecaster who feels that there will gradually be more and more electrical components to the car, just as they have been progressing in this manner over the last several years, but not a gasoline replacement, due to fueling time.

i think the fueling problem can be worked around. if you're fueling every night at home, then you don't need to fuel as much on the road except for extended road trips, and for those, maybe you'll have an exchangeable "travel battery" that you can carry with you and trade out like propane tanks.

On Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM, Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net> wrote:

The IPO was priced at $17/share today, well ahead of the $14 to $16 people had expected. (Biren: I didn't end up participating, since Charles Schwab wasn't participating, and I didn't feel it was worth my time to track down a different broker).

It will be interesting to see what the stock does today. I think it's probably going to climb a bit from all the people who wanted in on the IPO but couldn't get in, but then I expect it to settle down in the $6-8 range. We'll see.

-Peter

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

Fwd: Tesla Motors

2010-06-29T08:43:00.001-04:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Peter Sahlstrom <peter@stormlash.net>
Date: Tue, Jun 29, 2010 at 7:43 AM
Subject: Tesla Motors
To: Amanda Sahlstrom <amanda@stormlash.net>, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>

The IPO was priced at $17/share today, well ahead of the $14 to $16 people had expected. (Biren: I didn't end up participating, since Charles Schwab wasn't participating, and I didn't feel it was worth my time to track down a different broker).

It will be interesting to see what the stock does today. I think it's probably going to climb a bit from all the people who wanted in on the IPO but couldn't get in, but then I expect it to settle down in the $6-8 range. We'll see.

-Peter

--
Peter Sahlstrom
peter@stormlash.net
http://peter.stormlash.net

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

Lithium batteries

2010-06-23T14:24:00.001-04:00

Any strong lithium battery companies?

Profit in South Africa?

2010-06-11T07:15:00.002-04:00

Hello from Pretoria!

With the World Cup getting underway today, is there a trade to be made? I don't know if I will take part while I'm here, but I'm looking for ideas.

One route to consider is South Africa's wine industry. With all of the visitors, I expect there will be a lot of new people exposed to their grapes for the first time. I'll report on that when I get to Capetown in a few days. If you have any questions about the scene here, send them my way. Does anyone know of a publicly traded winery I should review while I'm here?

Off to watch the opening match in a public square!
Mark

solar a poor play?

2010-06-10T09:53:00.004-04:00

Subash Patel: Cramer says don't buy solar stocks b/c govt is poor aorrund world and can't afford to pay incentives
Biren Patel: Cramer is wrong, look at Germany, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany
Subash Patel: talks of proposed cuts in Germany
http://www.climateark.org/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=166768
However, GErmany is a small market. I don't think there's a major incentive in USA - especially with no more stimulus. USA is the real market. Plus Europe authorized a $1 trillion bailout...none of that money went to solar. Instead, countries must tightened spending to get bailout which is why everyone is afraid of another recession.
Biren Patel: ha, did you intentionally capitalize the G and the E in Germany to highlight GE?

natural gas pipelines versus natural gas

2010-06-10T09:24:00.003-04:00

Subash Patel: I'm thinking it may be safer to invest in pipelines than ng drillers. Less env issues. It appears dvn and kmp have similar returns for last 5 yrs also.

BP Sell

2010-06-05T13:37:00.004-04:00

My bracketed buy order executed at 36.76 on Wednesday. The BP position automatically exited at my profit exit point booking a 2 point gain Thursday. I still like the stock and if it shows more signs of weakness, I'll look to get back in, but will probably wait until after I get back from the World Cup in June. Did anyone else win on the volatility?

Fwd: cramer video on natural gas

2010-06-04T15:19:00.001-04:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Jun 4, 2010 at 10:08 AM
Subject: cramer video on natural gas
To: Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37489521

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

Fwd: ng

2010-06-04T15:15:00.001-04:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Jun 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM
Subject: ng
To: Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>

Devon sold all of its gulf oil to BP before the spill. They are now stricitly an onshore company with most reserves in natural gas. Strong balance sheet.

Cramer interviewed CEO of Devon: http://www.madmoneyrecap.com/madmoney_nightlyrecap_100315_3.htm

CHK has the most ng reservoirs but balance sheet is not solid.

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

Fwd: natural gas stock

2010-06-03T21:25:00.001-04:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, Jun 3, 2010 at 3:00 PM
Subject: Re: natural gas stock
To: Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>

Cramer says chk is ideal since they have most natural gas reservoirs.

However he bought cop today.

He mentions dvn, xom, ange, and national fuel gas.

I'll dig into them

On 6/3/10, Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
> Let me look into a few as well as scanna types.
>
> I think drilling companies will profit most followed by pipeline
> distibution companies. Residential is unlikely- I think facilities who
> switch form coal/oil to natural gas is where the demand is.
>
> Supposedly, when oil was at $140, companies were using natural gas
> instead. So it must be fairly simple to switch to natural gas.
>
> -subash
>
>
>
>
> On 6/3/10, Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com> wrote:
>> What do you think of electric and gas companies, like SCANNA?
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
>> Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 10:44 PM
>> To: Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>
>> Subject: natural gas stock
>>
>> I suggest to slowly start shifting $ to natural gas. Obama finally
>> mentioned it in a speech today that it is a cleaner fuel to use. Make
>> sense
>> since coal is filthy and we have an oil problem in the gulf. USA has
>> more
>> natural gas than just about any resource. I'm opening a position in
>> Devon
>> when stocks crash. It soared too much today, but I'm going to wait a
>> couple
>> weeks and start moving in.
>>
>> I would also look into pipelines such as KMP. Almost 7% dividend.
>>
>> -Subash
>
> --
> Sent from my mobile device
>

--
Sent from my mobile device

--
Biren Patel
http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com

FW: natural gas stock

2010-06-03T06:42:00.000-04:00

From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 10:44 PM
To: Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>
Subject: natural gas stock

I suggest to slowly start shifting $ to natural gas. Obama finally mentioned it in a speech today that it is a cleaner fuel to use. Make sense since coal is filthy and we have an oil problem in the gulf. USA has more natural gas than just about any resource. I'm opening a position in Devon when stocks crash. It soared too much today, but I'm going to wait a couple weeks and start moving in.

I would also look into pipelines such as KMP. Almost 7% dividend.

-Subash

Buy BP?

2010-06-02T00:31:00.003-04:00

Yeah... I'm crazy. I saw the stock plummet 15% when the market recognized that the "top-kill" wasn't going to work. I think it is an overreaction and the new tube which is being installed now may contain the leak. If it does watch for the market to respond favorably and me to realize a quick speculative win. From a long term perspective it would be fantastic to purchase this at the bottom, but I feel there are too many unknowns to hold onto this for more than a week and will buy and sell as soon as the results are in.

Anyone with me?

MSFT

2010-05-27T02:48:00.003-04:00

Biren's post about MSFT being smaller than AAPL made me realize something...

Sounds like a good time to buy. With Windows 7 selling well (in spite of sluggish enterprise pc sales), Office 2010 just released to manufacturing, and project natal reinventing the XBox in time for Christmas, I don't know how values fell back to levels not seen since last October when I first started thinking of buying the stock but didn't. I'm not making that mistake again.

One more reason to buy is the 39.666 Billion in cash on the books. Are they going to get acquisitive? If not, the rumored loss of preferential tax treatment of dividends, it may be time for MSFT to offload some of that cash either through a buy back or dividend. Either way, I'm a happy man.

I'll watch the market first thing in the morning and may place my buy order assuming all is in order.

BTW -- did you see all of the volume at the end of the day? Was it the $25.00 a share that was the psychological barrier or was it AAPL's market cap?

Msft vs aapl

2010-05-26T20:18:00.001-04:00

Today, apple overtook microsoft as the largest tech company.

Google is a bargain at under $500

2010-05-24T13:09:00.000-04:00

get in while its cheap:
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20100524&id=11538084

Re: Re:

2010-05-21T11:50:00.001-04:00

well, it's funny, the market starts pulling back a bit and everyone is predicting a large correction. i've been saying that there has been a need for a correction since January: http://freshmaninvestor.blogspot.com/2010/01/bubble-bursting.html

of course today, it's back up...crazy

you should cash out some to lock in at least some of the recent gains you've had, and pay off high interest loans. It's tough to say if you will be able to outperform the opportunity cost you save in paying off those loans. You should also consider trailing stop orders when you buy a stock. if you are buying mutual funds, ask your broker if they have any systems in place that watch for patterns and will protect you from losing too much before a sell off. I know Prudential offers a few of these vehicles.

On Fri, May 21, 2010 at 12:49 AM, Aaron Weaver <aaronweaver21@yahoo.com> wrote:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37259541

What do you think about this? Article makes me nervous - makes we wanna cash in.

Fwd: KFC Double Down

2010-05-20T16:09:00.001-04:00

Got this very interesting article from Peter. Take a look, about KFC's success with the double down sandwiches. Due to its success, we are sure to see a rise in "quirky" and "fun" foods at fast food restaurants, especially the YUM brands restaurants (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Long John Silvers, A&W).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/20/kfc-double-down-success-s_n_583434.html

Contrarian Strategy

2010-05-10T09:55:00.001-04:00

I ran across this article today. Yes, it is old (2007), but the advice is still solid. W. Buffet's quote of having a contrarian strategy is a memorable one:

"be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/10/25/be-greedy-when-others-are-fearful.aspx

2010-05-06T22:31:00.001-04:00

What do you think will happen tomorrow?

2010-05-06T21:23:00.001-04:00

So, a person accidentally sold 15 billion instead of 15 million shares of PG and that caused the market to collapse for 20 min? Really? I'm sure there are procedures to ensure people don't accidentally make a mistake like that...

banks and financials

2010-05-06T17:39:00.000-04:00

I like your take on Citigroup. They are headed in the right direction. I did notice that most bank stocks are at about 80% of their 52-week high, including citi, bank of america, goldman sachs, chase. Here are some notable exceptions:

Wells Fargo and SunTrust are at 90% (so are they that good? or too pricey?)

Deutsche Bank and HSBC are at 70% (discount buys? or crappy banks?)

Nightmare on Wall Street

2010-05-06T17:26:00.000-04:00

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-end-lower-after-nightmarish-day-2010-05-06?reflink=MW_news_stmp

crazy day....I wonder what could have possibly caused it. Were there not enough buyers in the afternoon? Did they all take a late lunch at the same time? Someone's limit order surely should have kicked in much earlier, or was there really just that much more selling going on?

8 Stocks I Would Buy Today

2010-05-06T01:11:00.003-04:00

Here are stocks I would buy today if I had money: Curious to see how they will do by end of year:

Apple: 255.99
(best non-holiday quarter ever)

Citigroup: 4.18
(new ceo turning company around - earned $0.15/share more than expected).

Wells Fargo: 32.66
(conservative big bank and Buffett continues to increase position)

People's United Financial: 15.00
(regional bank that didn't need TARP and has billions of cash. CEO recently resigned since he may not have taken advantage of buying other banks during financial crisis)

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners: 63.51
(acts like the toll both on 400 and natural gas price fluctuations doesn't affect stock)

General Electric: 18.10
(they own everything so profits will grow dramatically as economy improves)

Google: 509.76
(had great 2nd quarter and undervalued with PEG ratio less than 1. Pulling out of China is hurting stock. This may the riskiest security to own of the group)

Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF: 62.18
(small cap value funds historically have the highest return among etf among small, middle, and large growth and value funds)

2010-05-05T20:44:00.001-04:00

FW: I may buy citigoup instead of more apple. Turnaound working.

2010-05-03T11:33:00.003-04:00

Hi: 11.38 Lo: 11.38 Vol: 1304 Delayed

*Western Sky, 8772627093

2010-05-03T11:33:00.001-04:00

Wow, Power Secure is on fire. Good company, not sure if I can afford at this price.

FW: Y! Stocks:
POWR 11.38 is above your limit 6.
Chg: 0.12 (1.06572%)

2010-05-03T11:32:00.001-04:00

FW: 1 million ipads in 1 month sold- bette than first iphone

FW: apple conference call

2010-04-21T00:43:00.001-04:00

From: Subash Patel <subash.patel@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2010 4:41 PM
To: Biren Patel <biren.c.patel@gmail.com>
Subject: apple conference call

listenting to it - best iphone sales ever, best nonholiday quarter ever, most macbooks sold ever.

ipod is gaining ground internationally - holding steady in usa even though it competes against iphone.

iphone - 8.75 million units sold in quarter - most every in quarter. more than Christmas. Accessories sold for iphone is $5.4 billion.

Same stores revenue up 22%. 47 million visitors in apple stores. will open 40-50 new stores including 2 in Shanghi and 25 stories in China by 2011. 286 current stores.

41% profit per item on average. iphoneOS available in summer. 36% profit moving forward due to stronger US dollar, less itunes gift cards in summer, and ipad is less profitable than macs.

ipad sales far exceeded apple's expectations.

Asia Pacific iphone sales up 474%, Japan up 133%.

2010-04-16T17:29:00.001-04:00

Buy whoever makes flonase, is it Pfizer? Just got a RX for it, and I can't seem to find any pharmacy that has it in stock. Profit from this bad allergy season

2010-04-13T10:54:00.001-04:00

With economy improving, it may be best to buy conglomerate companies such as ge.

HP Slate

2010-03-09T21:40:00.000-05:00

http://inewp.com/?p=1397
HP announced a product similar to the iPad, the HP Slate, but it also allows for Flash content, something iPads and iPhones lack.
I love the end of this article:
"It will be a tough decision for consumers to decide between a HP-Slate and an Apple iPad. Which will you choose?"
Of course the first response I believe represents most consumers.
"Neither."

Google, GE

2010-03-09T15:34:00.002-05:00

Today I purchased 1 share of Google for $557.83 and 30 shares of GE for $16.43 each.

GOOG:
In addition to Peter's post about MSFT possibly having trouble, I think Google will do well in the OS and cell phone market. Plus their ability to bring IT to the Smart Grid so customers can use it is amazing. Google has a unique ability to make customers comfortable instead of anxious with new technology, something that Microsoft hasn't been able to do since Windows 95. The Smart Grid's biggest hurdle today is the Internet's biggest hurdle in 1985, customer acceptance. AOL was able to ease folks into the internet and I think Google through Google Power Meter will be able to ease folks into the Smart Grid.

GE:
I think they are the biggest player in the Smart Grid. They not only produce the meters, relays, and power generation components for utilities and power producers, they also make most of the electrical items for consumers. Industrial consumers rely on GE motors and heavy equipment while residental consumers use GE lightbulbs and appliances.

2010-03-08T22:24:00.001-05:00

Ipad can only help Apple. Apple projects to see 2-3 million units this year. This nothing compared to 20 million Iphones it sold in 4 Quarter 2009. Therefore, if Ipad is a bust, I don't think it affects Apple. If demand is more 3 million units, stock grows. In addition, I think Ipad is a bridge to making the laptop obsolete. Obviously not there yet, but way ahead of its competitors. The next generation Ipad may be as important as the Iphone in future.

UVSE penny stock finally sold!

2010-03-05T10:52:00.000-05:00

I didn't even know it happened. I checked my history and sure enough, my penny stock that I purchased last October (1.85M shares @ $0.0001 per share = $185) finally sold. As soon as I bought it, I put in a limit price to sell at $0.0002, which executed in January. So I doubled my $185, less the two $4.50 trading fees, and I just made $176. Phew... don't know if I'll try that again.

Why I'm thinking about shorting Microsoft

2010-03-03T15:52:00.003-05:00

When the 386 processor came out in 1986, it changed the world dramatically. The protected memory features it introduced made it suddenly possible to do minicomputer-like things on a much cheaper PC. This is the great boom-bust cycle of computers: the cheap hack often beats out the properly engineered, but more expensive solution. It happened to Mainframes with minicomputers, and to minicomputers with PCs. It happened to Token Ring with Ethernet, and to Novel with IP networking. And verily I say unto thee, it will happen someday with what we know of PC computing. ChromeOS and the iPad are the beginning of the end for Microsoft, and may lead to some trying times for Intel and AMD.

Surveys continually show that people are willing to pay more for quality - but market research often directly contradicts this. For example, people frequently express frustration at the new airline checked bag fees and at the prospect of paying extra for snacks - but given the choice between that and an airline ticket that includes these items but costs $50-$100 more, consumers will almost always go for the cheaper option. It's this same mentality that sends people to Wal-Mart instead of Publix, or that made the MP3 such a successful music format. It's what made Toyota a successful American brand in the 70s, and is likely to do the same with the current round of Korean and Chinese manufacturers.

What does this have to do with Microsoft? Windows and Office are extremely mature products - they've got two decades of development behind them, more features than any single person alive knows about, and and a massive support and development team. This is what has eliminated all their past competition - it's just been impossible to compete with them by offering the same thing. Meanwhile, Microsoft has been able to fund the development of other products (Internet Explorer, Windows Media Player, DirectX) at a loss to help keep competition out. Windows pays for Media Player; Office pays for the Xbox. But what if someone was able to offer 75% of Windows for 10% of the price? It would be awfully hard for Microsoft to compete with that - they can't exactly offer a 90% discount on their most profitable products.

Here's a reference model to support my point: let's compare the performance of Microsoft over the past 14 years with that of IBM between 1981 and 1991. I'll use the following parts:
Microsoft
IBM

Here's some context for the IBM growth: IBM had come out of a long antitrust investigation by the US government, and then launched a series of hugely successful personal computers. However, the IBM PS/2 got to market late, and was not all that people had hoped for. Meanwhile, the clone PC market continued to eat their lunch, until the bottom finally fell out and they lost 66% of their stock valuation.

Doesn't this sound a bit familiar? In 1999, Microsoft was on top of the world. But since that time, competition has grown in many unexpected places. There are at least three mainstream document editors that are compatible with the Office document format, and as Web Applications have taken over, the inability for other operating systems to run programs written for Windows has become moot.

Why is it that Microsoft hasn't seen any major growth in the past 8 years? They've released a whole series of successful upgrades to Windows and Office. The question is, where else do they have to expand? None of their other markets offer them the same margins as Windows and Office, no matter how hard they try.

Meanwhile, there's no longer the strong requirement to have a PC to get things done. A great many people are able to get most of their work done on a smartphone, much less a full-fledged laptop. This is the future of development, at least in the short term - languages that compile into HTML and Javascript, and that operate over HTTP. There's nothing Microsoft can do to stop this, other than to try to adapt - and that's going to be extremely difficult, as they'll have to walk away from the margins they currently enjoy on OS and Office development.

The interesting thing is that this is likely to be far worse for Microsoft than it is good for Google. The actions Google is taking will commoditize the OS market - it will no longer matter which OS you run, as long as you can view webpages. Perhaps this has been part of their motivation for sponsoring Firefox development while maintaining a browser of their own - it makes Linux a viable contender in this market as well. Anyway, Google isn't going to make anything off of ChromeOS - but they will eliminate their biggest competitor. (Remember that this is exactly what Microsoft did to Netscape - they bundled IE as value-added software for free, and undercut Netscape's revenue stream).

Intel and AMD have more potential to succeed, as there's still tremendous demand for microprocessors. But the processors in the greatest demand are going to be the cheapest, lowest margin ones, like the ones that ARM makes now. If the OS is no longer an issue, all that matters is that Linux runs well on your microprocessor. So, this is shaping up to be a good time for Linux development.

dollar cost averaging

2010-02-28T22:19:00.000-05:00

in this crazy market, it makes little sense to buy back in with all available funds. Instead, I will try dollar cost averaging, which is simply buying back in a little at a time over a period of maybe 3-6 months. The idea is that I will have bought positions at the 3-6 month average price instead of buying everything at tomorrow's price just to have it crash next week.

unemployment again

2010-02-04T21:30:00.000-05:00

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35247422

Unemployment in finally catching up with the market. As I mentioned before, unless unemployment numbers improve, recovery hasn't really started. The argument that more layoffs are saving the company money only goes so far, and only for the short term. For a company to grow, productive people have to be hired and paid. For an economy to recover, those productive paid people need to spend their paychecks. The trick with the market is to get in before the improved unemployment numbers come, but I don't have a crystal ball. However, you cannot say that recovery is underway if the unemployment numbers don't reflect it.

Apple iPad

2010-02-01T21:43:00.000-05:00

I've been asked to expand on my previous post where I simply txt'ed from my phone that the iPad is junk, so here are some more details. Apple is not going to convince people that they need a mobile device that's "in-between" a smart phone and a laptop. Most folks are already carrying both, and the iPad doesn't bring any additional functionality or convenience to someone who already owns an iPhone and a Macbook. And for the person who doesn't own both an iPhone and a Macbook, at $499, he or she will probably invest in an iPhone or Macbook (or both) before an iPad since the iPad by itself doesn't cover all of a person's needs. When I heard the rumors, I thought that Apple might come up with a competitive ebook reader to the Amazon Kindle, B&N Nook, or Sony Reader. If Apple had a device that could also display text on an easy to read, paper-like screen, then it would be worth the extra price tag for someone already looking to spend $250 for one of the other brands. Then, to them, the iPad would cost just an additional $250. But it's incapable of displaying those type of pages with its LCD screen. You might as well read from your laptop or iPhone. Had they hit this market, they could have expanded the iTunes store to also sell e-books, taking market share from Amazon and Barnes & Noble.

GDP expansion, end of recession?

2010-01-31T23:15:00.000-05:00

Is the recession over? Market had an awful week last week, maybe the two combine for an excellent buying session on Monday. Take a look at this:
http://talkradionews.com/2010/01/gdp-expansion-marks-end-of-recession-says-economist/

2010-01-28T18:16:00.001-05:00

Ipad is junk....apple lost this gamble

Bubble bursting?

2010-01-15T13:19:00.001-05:00

It's been crazy since last September. Rally after rally with no corrections. I said in October that things were bouncing back too fast, but clearly I was wrong and the market finished the year strong. I haven't been in the market since October, and I missed the boat on some big gains. However, I still think the correction will come and I'm anxiously waiting by the sidelines to reinvest. Maybe today is the beginning of such a correction. We'll see where next week takes us. The fact is, this country isn't in that much better shape than it was last October. Unemployement is still high, the real estate market is still in the dumps, and banks and automakers are still struggling.

Google threatening to pull out of China

2010-01-12T22:00:00.000-05:00

http://247wallst.com/2010/01/12/google-goog-may-leave-china-completely/
I love Google's statement. It shows that they are a company that really cares about free speech in China. We don't know how good it is over here in the U.S. to enjoy unfiltered Google search results. I doubt the Chinese version of Jay Leno could get away with a joke about any political leader.

Tiffany's and Infosys

2010-01-12T15:19:00.000-05:00

Today, I wanted to bring up a couple of interesting stocks. I was suprised to learn that Tiffany's, the high priced jewelry company is up 122% since this time last year. I would have thought sales of overpriced jewelry would slump in a recession. This seems to be the case for other jewelers, but not Tiffany. Take a look at this article that compares Tiffany's to their competition:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100112-710558.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

I also wanted to bring up Infosys, and Indian IT company that had a great 2009 and seems to be continuing that trend for 2010. Any thoughts?
http://www.infosys.com/about/what-we-do/Pages/index.aspx

2010-01-10T11:54:00.001-05:00

Appls new device is rumored to compete as an e-book reader. They also may add e-books to itunes.
--Biren

Apple in the netbook market

2010-01-08T14:36:00.002-05:00

Looks like they'll be releasing their life-changing device in Q2:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0814463220100108?type=marketsNews

finally, another chance to buy in?

2010-01-08T08:50:00.002-05:00

check out this report,
good news for those of us holding out for a cheaper position:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-drop-after-dec-jobs-losses-higher-than-expected-2010-01-08

nexus one phone

2010-01-07T01:22:00.000-05:00

http://www.google.com/phone
this is a pretty amazing phone. Will Apple come out with a new revision of the iPhone? If not, they may lose marketshare. I think RIMM/Blackberry needs to wake up and come up with something different to stay competitive. Probably a bad time to buy or hold RIMM.

2009-12-28T22:40:00.001-05:00

According to CNBC's documentary with Google, thge company is growing as fast as Microsoft did, but Google is raking in much higher profits. Google may be the #1 company of all time.

wrong about spending

2009-12-23T09:16:00.000-05:00

Looks like I missed on the spending prediction:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126157233578602825.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

It's interesting how spending changes things. It was excessive spending that got us into the credit crisis, and maybe excessive spending will get us back out. If we are on the way to recovery, I certainly hope we learn from our mistakes and don't set ourselves up to fail again.

ITRI in the UK

2009-12-23T09:13:00.001-05:00

http://www.intelligentutility.com/article/09/12/itron-welcomes-uk-governments-response-smart-metering-consultation

Encouraging Words

2009-12-14T09:44:00.001-05:00

Just this past Saturday a close friend and colleague, Elisa Miller, died tragically. Her interoffice instant messenger away message is still posted. They are certainly encouraging for the audience of this blog, and I’ll share them with you.

"Successful people do what ordinary people will not do, which is develop relationships, encourage innovative ideas and celebrate other people’s accomplishments as well as their own."

"ITRI is top dog"

2009-12-09T09:08:00.000-05:00

Itron Inc is top dog. That's the word according to Greentech.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/top-ten-smart-grid-3605/
For at least a year we have fumbled around on this website about smart metering and ITRI. There's clearly a huge market for it. $4 billion of stimulus money has been awarded for Smart Grid technologies (where most of the projects involve smart meters). So why are they still not earning? They have the product, they have the market, but do they have the correct management?

Blogging Trend

2009-11-12T00:01:00.003-05:00

It is interesting to note that as stocks fell, less posts were published. As stocks increased, more posts to this website occurred.

Don't use this as advice! Just an interesting finding.

buying more PBCT

2009-11-11T23:41:00.002-05:00

I will purchase more in early December if it stays in the low $16 or less.

GOOG, GE, AAPL, WFC, KMP up since purchased. PBCT is down 1.5%.

Another high

2009-11-09T21:55:00.000-05:00

Today the DOW hit a new 52-week high. I've been waiting to invest for sometime, but perhaps I'm missing the boat. GE had a bad quarter and even Power Secure dropped off as profit takers came in, but both have since bounced back up.

2009-10-25T23:09:00.001-04:00

Opening a position in Google. Advertisement is up - Yahoo's is on the decline according to a report by Barron. Google is also expected to be a part of the smart grid boom as well. Android may rival Iphone. Android will gain customers who want an alternative to the Iphone. I think the smartphone market can handle 2 major competitors. If there's a pullback, will buy more. B/c of smartphones, more people are online often- which means more people are accessing Google web pages. Search is up 30 percent compared to last quarter.

2009-10-25T21:27:00.001-04:00

At current price and with smart grid potential, I'm opening a position with GE. GE has a $5 billion backlog with smart grid and orders are up 3 percent. With GE being suck a big company, Cramer does not think it will be a significant factor with GE's earnings. GE appears to be oversold at current levels. It should hit significant resistent at current pricing and should begin an upswing. If the smart grid is as big as it will be, GE should benefit significantly with the products and momentum. Third quarter was far from spectacular, but I'm using this as a buying opportunity.

2009-10-24T10:58:00.001-04:00

I sold my car stocks: Honda/Toyota. Did very well with Honda but lost with Toyota. Too much competition- the sector looks like the airline industry.

I'm buying PBCT: regional bank from the northeast. Q3 met expectations- $27 million in profit, but most importantly, they have $2.5 billion of excess liquidity and may be willing to acquire and franchise up to $40 billion in assets according to their conference call. This bank may be looking for an opportunity to become a national bank.

Also, PBCT turned down TARP money.

Watching Google also: waiting for a cheaper entry point.

whatever goes up has to come down!!

2009-10-21T02:51:00.002-04:00

I think this article makes sense, but I would like somemore input from other members
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/1929-And-Today-Sobering-etfguide-2101131945.html?x=0

Buying Apple

2009-10-20T23:39:00.002-04:00

Buying Apple at $199.70. Do a search for the word demand with Apples' Q3 2009 conference call. Demand is insane for products in USA and internationally. $200 for Apple is cheap in my opinion after reading the transcript.

Interesting facts:

19 search hits for "demand."
8 search hits for "backlog."

The transcript is only 19 pages long including a page for disclaimer.

unemployment

2009-10-08T17:28:00.000-04:00

Looks like those unemployment numbers are finally turning around. Like I mentioned before, this is a true indication that recovery has begun. From CNNMoney.com:

"Economy: Around 521,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment last week versus forecasts for 540,000, the Labor Department reported. The number was the lowest in more than 9 months. Around 554,000 Americans filed unemployment claims in the previous week. Continuing claims, a measure of those who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 6.04 million."

UVSE executed at $0.0001

2009-10-07T19:37:00.002-04:00

So for the last few weeks, I've had a limit order to purchase 1.85 million shares of penny stock, UVSE for $0.0001 in hopes of selling it for $0.0002. Today, it finally executed. Again, there has been such small volume traded on this stock, that I wasn't even expecting an execution to happen at my price. Now, I've got a limit order placed to sell it for $0.0002. This stock jumps between $0.0001 and $0.0003 pretty regularly. If my trade executes, I'll be up 100% on a $185 investment less $9 for comissions and of course whatever the capital gains taxes will be. We'll see what happens.

big gains today

2009-10-06T22:24:00.000-04:00

Every sector of the market looked great today. Maybe I was wrong about the economic recovery, perhaps it has begun. So who was the one guy who voted for the last option on the poll? Of course, we'll wait through the end of October to find out for sure, but as of now, it looks like your prediction is coming true.

Data Storage - WDC vs STX

2009-10-03T22:03:00.003-04:00

Another aspect of the smart grid and other smart technologies is the need for large amounts of data storage. These "smart" systems will require terabytes and terabytes of data to be stored, mined, and analyzed. My realization of this could be late, but check out Western Digital (WDC). This stock has been performing well. So has competitor, Seagate (STX), but Seagate doesn't boast a profit like Western Digital does.

Advice: see where this correction will take us, but get ready to pull the trigger on WDC in late Dec or early Jan. I still expect the market to be lower then than it is today, and hopefully you can pick up WDC at a discounted price.

Economics of Insurance

2009-10-03T19:44:00.001-04:00

So what are the economics of insurance as far as how it affects human behavior? I would argue that having insurance promotes the items that insurance is supposed to protect against. For example, if I have homeowners insurance, I may be less likely to secure my house against burglary or fire. Sure, there are small insurance discounts for having a smoke alarms or a burglar alarm, but I'll just buy those things for the discount and may never take an active role in closing my garage door, or participating in a neighborhood watch program. In addition, a thief may be less deterred from stealing because the thief wouldn't feel as guilty towards their victim if they suspect their victim will just get reimbursed (think of the bank robbers in the Newton Boys movie). Thus, they would have less disincentive to break into your house (if they have any conscience).

Same with car insurance. Are you less likely to drive safe knowing that you're covered? If you didn't have insurance (aside from being illegal) would you stay off the road or take public transportation instead?

Now the big question, what about health insurance? For those that have good health insurance, they are really burdening the system. A lot of folks do not have the financial incentive to shop around for quality care at a reasonable price. They do not have the financial incentive to take health care into their own hands and quit smoking or change their diet and exercise habits. Many look at health care like a car under warranty. Patients want to enjoy an unhealthy lifestyle and then expect the doctor to fix them when things go wrong.

Doctors aren't much better either. Are they providing lousier care because they have malpractice insurance? In theory this could be true, but my understand of reality is that malpractice insurance has huge disincentives should a lawsuit come up. What about how doctors choose treatment? If they know the patient has good insurance, they may end up recommending unnecessary and expensive treatment or testing (probably to cover their ass from malpractice suits).

Insurance can really mask or lighten the financial disincentives for bad behavior. However, removing insurance altogether doesn't mean that bad things will never happen. Even folks who perform all of the "good" behaviors still have bad luck. How can we keep the protection insurance provides without inheriting the irresponsible financial behavior that comes with it?

Unemployment

2009-10-02T17:52:00.002-04:00

Today's big news was that actual unemployment was much higher than expected unemployment. This economy will not turn around if people are not working and therefore making and spending money. It's a paradox, because employers won't hire folks until the economy improves, thus the reasoning behind government spending to kick-start a recovery.

The scary thing is that we've introuduced government spending and all the risks that come with it, yet the unemployment numbers are still not improving. I won't even try to offer an alternative solution. I'd rather just complain about the poor results.

Until unemployment drops, I won't be convinced that we have begun the recovery period.
Meltdown 101: Unemployment by the numbers
Google - Unemployment Index